Slippage along the break i. The second theory is called the Characteristic Earthquake, which describes how the most studied earthquake-generating faults seem to have distinct segments. These segments repeatedly rupture to produce earthquakes of similar magnitudes after accumulating a similar amount of strain in the intervening period between earthquake events.
Assuming these two theories always held, you could predict when the next earthquake would happen based on 1 the location of greatest unrelieved strain, 2 the time since the last earthquake on the fault, and 3 precise knowledge of the fault zone which we may never achieve for many areas. In , this framework led earthquake scientists to believe that the Parkfield segment of the San Andreas Fault was overdue for an earthquake. The most sophisticated monitoring effort in the world was deployed to capture it in action.
Scientists stated confidently that the next earthquake would hit by at the latest. However, the earthquake occurred over a decade later in and without any warnings. This type of discordance between predictions and data is common, and no reliable prediction method has been discovered despite numerous attempts.
Thus, even the two most prevalent working theories of earthquake prediction, which are grounded in science and useful for understanding earthquake phenomena, are not fully reliable for prediction purposes. Today, prediction methods are primarily focused on probabilistic earthquake forecasting , which is the statistical assessment of general earthquake hazard in a given area over a certain time frame.
Probabilistic forecasting concerns the odds at which an earthquake might occur, while the earlier technique of deterministic prediction involves specifying exactly when an earthquake will occur. The probabilistic earthquake prediction technique is currently being employed in California through a model called the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast 3 , which provides authoritative estimates on the likelihood of earthquake fault ruptures throughout the state.
As inputs, the tool includes the geometries of all major faults in the region, as well as the most current data on how often earthquakes occur and how strong they are when they do. A second promising development is the earthquake early warning system. Upon detection of an earthquake, it provides a real-time warning of seconds to minutes for neighboring regions that might be affected. This system takes advantage of the different speeds of seismic waves that make up the energy radiating from an earthquake.
In short, if the system detects the first arrival of the fastest waves, known as P waves, before the arrival of the more-dangerous, slower-moving surface waves, an alarm can be triggered Figure 2.
Using high-speed automation, even a few seconds of warning could be enough to stop machinery, such as trains and elevators, and alert people to get to safety. Currently, the rail system in the San Francisco Bay Area BART uses an earthquake early warning system to automatically slow trains when an earthquake occurs.
Richard Allen, a seismologist at University of California Berkeley is one of the leaders in this field and helped develop the ShakeAlert system. Allen is developing a smart phone-based detection system that has shown promising early results in densely populated regions. Mexico City residents are alerted by an Earthquake Early Warning System siren to exit a building just before it collapses.
However, falsely warning of an earthquake that never occurs is costly due to the unnecessary activation of emergency measures and the potential disruptions to commerce and everyday life.
And similar to crying wolf, it could undermine the credibility and effectiveness of future warnings. To circumvent these issues, artificial intelligence AI technologies could be implemented to detect patterns and signals in the earthquake prediction data that humans cannot see. According to Dr. Brendan Meade, a professor in the Earth and Planetary Sciences Department at Harvard University, the way we approach problems in the geosciences may be reversed in the future.
Instead of using equations to model a given system, we may use AI to search for an answer and then try to understand what it means. The application of AI to earthquake prediction is still in its infancy , so time will tell whether this approach is effective. So, when is the next big earthquake going to happen? We may never know, but I remain optimistic that we can limit earthquake hazards to society.
Whether the solution is found through AI, earthquake early warning, or continually improving probabilistic models through better understanding of the earthquake process, there is much improvement that can be made to increase our resiliency.
The complexity is unimaginable, though we may have not gotten the solution over decades, but we shall unravel the mystery soon with our complex divine intelligence and with the help of artificial intelligence.
Franklin wolf. God bless your effort in trying to make the earth less harful and habitable. Hi my name is Suzanne suzannecoates gmail.
Suzanne, i sent a message to all the too pastors of international mega churches last week warning them, stumbled across this post of yours this am , take care suzanne. I can predict earthquakes of only 5. Sir, I appreciate your fascination with earthquakes but I hate to disappoint you but they are as unpredictable and rain.
Is the quake going to be near this area or farther? Please give us a forecast of this phenomenom if you can. Thank you.
Someone curious to know. Scientists know that quakes of this size hit California semi-frequently, and study probability in order to understand the risks. We know the San Andreas Fault will strike again and significantly impact all civilization within a mile radius. Two earthquakes have previously been data-classified as big ones; The San Francisco quake in with a magnitude of 7.
Read more about these disasters here. Unfortunately, scientists are unable to predict earthquakes with any certainty, but they believe quakes of this magnitude will happen every few hundred years. That means we're right on the cusp of a potential Big One. If an earthquake strikes, transportation paths will be destroyed, reservoirs drained, and utility lines broken.
People in the affected areas will likely be without electricity, food, water, and shelter for weeks or longer. Self-preservation efforts should be in place. Rescue efforts will be difficult without access roads or clear paths for travel. Rebuilding will take a long time and more importantly, knowing how and where to rebuild will require testing and analysis since the ground structure will have been altered. If you do not know your membership number, please call the GA on or email info geography.
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